Former general manager and head of financial market research at AQR Capital Management said Bitcoin's next bullish run would take BTC to $ 60,000 – $ 400,000
In a new article published for Bloomberg, Aaron Brown says that the big numbers are in line with the previous market cycles of the leading crypto currency:
By 2015, Bitcoin fell 85% to 175 dollars (though this is still $ 175). Higher than in 2013). It then sprang up to the top of more than $ 20,000 by the end of 2017. In 2018, it again lost 85% of its value and dropped to $ 3,200 (still at the top of 2015). This year, Bitcoin rose more than $ 9,000 and is now around $ 8,100. If the last two rally patterns are repeated, Bitcoin may increase from $ 60,000 to $ 400,000 before 85% of the fall.
Changes in the Bitcoin option market
However, according to Brown, two factors are another major factor in the near future.
It shows that the Bitcoin rally will not take place. Brown to Bitcoin's S&P 500
volatility at -0.2, which is currently a historically low level.
said. This is due to changes in the Bitcoin option market.
Brown's big Bitcoin bull run on the deck
At the end of November 2017, where the crypto currency prices were similar to the current prices, a month's $ 10,000 Bitcoin options were actively trading with over 300% implied volatility. This means that for $ 8,000, it is paid $ 2,200 to buy Bitcoin for $ 10,000.
Aaron Brown announces the best Bitcoin forecast for the summer.
The expert added the following to his explanations:
With around 85 volatility, it sells for $ 200 at a more reasonable price. This means that with a 15% probability, Bitcoin has a chance to rise to over $ 10,000 per month, and if there is, it is a slightly more than expected price of just $ 11,000. If not, the expected price is around $ 7,500. It's a variable investment, but nothing like 2017 does bull run. Therefore, the possibility of a bubble or collapse in the near future seems to be smaller than when recent prices were close to this level.
Brown said the best forecast for the summer would be based on basic news rather than a parabolic increase triggered by fear of a collective lack of price movements of Bitcoin.
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